Wednesday, April 11, 2012

No War

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Bloodshed, destruction, mourning, orphans, tears...These are the familiar terms attached to any war. A look at the modern history of the world can prove that all international conflicts have produced these inevitable results. Now that theres a possibility of a military action against on Iraq, there has been a lot of debate in the international community about it. If it takes military action against Iraq, the destabilization of the middle-east region, which is the main source of oil for the US, combined with the present sluggish economy and the risk of losing allies internationally can spell disaster for the US.

The differences between Iraq and the US began when Iraq invaded Kuwait in 10. The invasion of Kuwait caused a huge international outcry that subsequently led to what history will remember as the Gulf War. The main reason for the invasion of Kuwait was the huge oil resources there. While it is a small country compared to its neighboring countries, Kuwaits oil resources exceed that of its neighbors by a huge margin. As a result of American and British intervention and air strikes, Iraq had to pull out of Kuwait, but the legacy of hatred between it and the US was to resurface after more than a decade.

Now, after ten years of mutual recrimination, the US is planning to re-wage the war with Iraq. In spite of all the rhetoric from the US administration about the need to attack Iraq and disarm it, there are many arguments against it. First, it will be economically wrong to wage a war against another nation while the US is in deep economic trouble. It will cost a huge amount of money in the form of materials and weapons and while the US suffers one of its worst economic recessions, this extra burden can cripple the economy. According to some estimates, the war against Iraq will cost the US from to 1 billion dollars. A major part of this money will be spent on the ammunition needed for the war. According to New York Times, each rocket that the US will fire on Iraq will cost more than $0,000. Furthermore, the logistical supplies in the form of food, clothing, fuel, etc. for the soldiers will be unimaginably high. Therefore, the nightmare of supporting thousand of soldiers on the other side of the planet could be the last straw to the US economy and is a strong argument against an attack.

In addition, an attack on Iraq can alienate the global allies of the US. Many countries that are strong regional allies of the US have already expressed their disapproval of any military action on Iraq. For example, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Turkey are opposed to any military action. In addition, Russia, China and France, who are the key members of the United Nations Security Council, are among the countries that are against any attack on Iraq. They have been the major players in the international scene on world matters. Given the huge influence Russia, China and France have in the international arena and in their own regions, and the importance of having regional allies in the middle-east, which is a very strategically important region; the risk of losing them will be a great loss to the US. And thats exactly what will happen if it attacks Iraq.

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The attack on Iraq can also possibly destabilize the Middle-East region. Since the US would have to use the airspace and possibly the military facilities, e.g. airports, of the neighboring countries of Iraq to launch an attack on it, Iraq may retaliate against its neighbors. All this can lead to chaos in the region and the possible outcome of this can be a cut-off of oil from that region. Given the dependence of the US on oil from the Middle East and the fact that it is importing more than 50% of its oil from there, the US will face problems it has never faced in its history if the oil is cut off. It will be much worse than the seventies when people had to line up for blocks to get gas when the OPEC put an oil embargo on the US. America has never been more vulnerable because the country has never been so dependent on large oil-consuming vehicles, oil-driven industries like shipping or the airlines. It is another strong reason for the US to reconsider the idea of a military action against Iraq.

In addition to all the above reasons, the inevitable huge loss of civilian life in Iraq and the possible casualties of US servicemen there are the concerns of many people now. The US army has made a lot of mistakes recently in Afghanistan where it had targeted civilians in its campaign against terror. As a result, hundreds of civilians lost their lives. It has even mistakenly bombed its own ground soldiers and the Afghan military that had been crucial in rooting out the Al-Qaeda from Afghanistan and killed or wounded many of them. And it has happened many times. Given all this, it is quite possible that the civilians in Iraq will bear the brunt of US air-strikes. The concern for the life of its military personnel and the loss of civilian life in Iraq should be other reasons for the US to stay away from an attack on Iraq.

Those who support an attack on Iraq say the country has links with Al-Qaeda. However, no evidence has ever been found to link Iraq with the terrorists. All the evidence they have been talking about has proved to be sketchy and insufficient to prove links. Iraq itself has been challenging the US to produce any evidence linking Iraq with Al-Qaeda and the US hasnt been able to prove any of its accusations.

They also say Iraq possesses weapons of mass destruction that can possibly be used against the US. Again, theres no proof of Iraqs nuclear capabilities. The UN inspectors who spent 7 years in Iraq found no sign of any weapons of mass destruction. In addition to that, Iraq has agreed to let the UN weapons inspectors return and resume their inspection of suspected sites. Therefore, theres no need to take a military action.

The possible chaos in the Middle-East, the resulting resentment in the world community, Americas economic troubles and the humanitarian concern for the possible loss of civilian life in Iraq and among US military personnel are strong reasons for the US to avoid any action against Iraq. As we see, the stakes are too high for the US if it takes military action. Those who are pro-war with Iraq have to look at the consequences of a war with Iraq. Finally, given all the reasons above, it is obvious that the United States is not ready for this war and that it has more to lose in the war than it can gain.

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