My Favorite Day

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My Favorite Day

I wake up early, today is a special day. As I step into the shower, I begin to think of what an exciting day I have ahead of me. I take my newly washed and dried uniform off the hanger, and put it on with such pride and dignity. I start to notice all the differences there are from a normal morning, than that of a game day. Such as the things I eat, only fruits. On any other day I will eat anything. Also, the way I feel. On a normal days the sun doest shine the same, the grass doesn't feel as wet and ready to be played on, and the way the wind hits me is different.

I get into my car, turn off the radio, and focus during the drive to the field. I am thinking off the many things I have learned through soccer, about life. From the triumphs and victories, to the hardships and struggles. Many of the lessons in life, I have learned from playing soccer. I have learned what its like to be the very best and what its like to be the worst. The feeling of being at the top of your game, hardly any flaws, and then realizing that all can come crashing down when you begin to think too big. It's like you have the world at your feet, and one thing happens and it all disappears. Now, back to where you started, so many years ago, you're at the beginning. My mind still wandering I think of the emotional struggles I have had playing soccer. From losing teammates and coaches, losing games, and getting hurt. All which have an effect with the way you play.

I come to the field and walk over to my team's side. As I start to put my equipment on, my mind is set on the next 80 minutes. I try to imagine the game being played in my head. I can see all the right things being played out, but also can see the flaws and mistakes we've made in the past and now is when we fix them.

We begin to warm-up. All anxiety and anticipation is gone, because now we are 10 minutes away from starting the game. As Captain, I run the team. I begin the drills until it's time for equipment check. Five minutes has passed and the referees are now calling us to the sidelines. They do their check and ask for Captains to do the coin flip. I walk to the referees and my opponents completely focused and ready to play. "Players, shake hands," says the referee. Then he flips the coin, we call, "Heads." We win the flip, we want ball. We shake hands again and back to our team to head last words from Coach and to be announced.

The next thing I hear is , " Starting, at stopper, number 18." The crowd goes wild as I run to the center of the field. I stand on the center circle alone, waiting for my opponent's handshake, we exchange, and then I run to my team and get them fired up. " Go Muskies," we shout loudly.

It is now exactly 0 seconds before kick-off. All I hear is the ref saying, " Goalie, you ready? Keep you ready?" Then, the whistle is blown, I run to the ball and run my favorite play. I am now in my sanctuary, where no one else can come, I am now living my dream.

Forty Minutes has passed, and the score 0-0, fatigue is setting in. Luckily, we have a 10 minute break, so I can rebuild my concentration on the game alone. No fans, no coaches, no ref's, only girls doing the thing they love. I listen to coach speak of the things we need to improve, and things we need to continue doing. I am now ready to go give my heart for another 40 minutes, without ever giving up. Then, I step back on the field and heard the exact words I heard 50 minutes ago, " Goalie, you ready? Keep, you ready?" Then, the whistle is blown, and it all begins again.

Until this moment the game was equal, but our team has a corner kick and I am feeling lucky. Kate kicks the ball to the same place every time, which is to me. This time I take a step back before she kicks and moved in while the ball is floating in the air. I stick my head out, and make contact. It's going in is all I am thinking. Sure enough, top left corner, perfect placement. The game is now ours 1-0, so we decide to play 5 back on defense, although still trying to score another goal to ensure our victory. The final whistle blows, we have won! My teammates and coaches on the bench, run onto the field to celebrate with us. We shake hands with the other team and the referees, and continue to celebrate our victory.

Walking off the field, I feel pride and joy that we have just beat a team no one thougth was possible to beat. I take off my equipment, walk to my car, and drive home, excited about the next game.

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Piracy and Ethics

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Piracy and Ethics

In 1 worldwide illegal copying of domestic and international software cost $1.5 billion to the software industry, with a loss of $. billion in the United States alone. Estimates show that over 40 percent of U.S. software company revenues are generated overseas, yet nearly 85 percent of the software industrys piracy losses occurred outside of the United States borders. The Software

Publishers Association indicated that approximately 5 percent of the business software in the United States was obtained illegally, which 0 percent of the piracy occurs in corporate settings. In a corporate setting or business, every computer must have its own set of original software and the appropriate number of manuals. It is illegal for a corporation or business to purchase a single set of original software and then load that software onto more than one computer, or lend, copy

or distribute software for any reason without the prior written consent of the software manufacturer. Many software managers are concerned with the legal compliance, along with asset management and costs at their organizations. Many firms involve their legal departments and human resources in regards to software distribution and licensing.

Custom Essays on Piracy and Ethics

Information can qualify to be property in two ways; patent law and copyright laws which are creations of federal statutes, pursuant to Constitutional grant of legislative authority. In order for the government to prosecute the unauthorized copying of computerized information as theft, it must first rely on other theories of information-as-property. Trade secret laws are created by state law, and most jurisdictions have laws that criminalize the violations of a trade-secret holdersrights in the secret. The definition of a trade secret varies somewhat from state to state, but commonly have the same elements. For example, AThe information must be secret, Anot of public knowledge or of general knowledge in the trade or business, a court will allow a trade secret to be used by someone who discovered or developed the trade secret independently or if the holder does not take adequate precautions to protect the secret.

In 164 the United States Copyright Office began to register software as a form of literary expression. The office based its decision on White-Smith Music Co. v. Apollo , where the Supreme Court determined that a piano roll used in a player piano did not infringe upon copyrighted music because the roll was part of a mechanical device. Since a computer program is textual, like a book, yet also mechanical, like the piano roll in White-Smith, the Copyright Office

granted copyright protection under the rule of doubt.

In 174, Congress created the Natural Commission on New Technological Uses (CONTU) to investigate whether the evolving computer technology field outpaced the existing copyright laws and also to determine the extent of copyright protection for computer programs. CONTU concluded that while copyright protection should extend beyond the literal source code of a computer program, evolving case law should determine the extent of protection. The commission

also felt copyright was the best alternative among existing intellectual property protective mechanisms, and CONTU rejected trade secret and patents as viable protective mechanisms. The CONTU report resulted in the 180 Computer Software Act, and the report acts as

informal legislative history to aid the courts in interpreting the Act.

In 180 The Copyright Act was amended to explicitly include computer programs. Title 17 to the United States Code states that it is illegal to make or to distribute copies of copyrighted material

without authorization, except for the users right to make a single backup copy for archival purposes. Any written material (including computer programs) fixed in a tangible form (written somewhere i.e. printout) is considered copyrighted without any additional action on the part of the author. Therefore, it is not necessary that a copy of the software program be deposited with the Copyright Office in Washington, D.C. for the program to be protected as copyrighted. With that in mind then a copyright is a property right only. In order to prevent anyone from selling your software programs, you must ask a court (federal) to stop that person by an injunction and to give you damages for the injury they have done to you by selling the program.

The Software Rental Amendments Act Public Law 101-650) was approved by Congress in 10, this Act prohibits the commercial rental, leasing or lending of software without the express written permission of the copyright holder. An amendment to Title 18 to the United States Code waspassed by Congress in 1. This amendment. Known as Public Law 10-561 made software piracy a federal offense, and instituted criminal penalties for copyright infringement of

software. The penalties can include imprisonment of up to five years, fines up to $50,000 or both for unauthorized reproduction or distribution of 10 or more copies of software with a total retail

value exceeding $,500 or more.

Under United States law duplicating software for profit, making multiple copies for use by different users within an organization, and giving an unauthorized copy to someone else - is prohibited. Under this law if anyone is caught with the pirated software, an individual or the individuals company can be tried under both civil and criminal law. A Civil action may be established for

injunction, actual damages (which includes the infringer=s profits) or statutory damages up to $100,000 per infringement. The criminal penalties for copyright infringement can result in fines up to $50,000 and a jail term up to five years for the first offense and ten years for a second offense or both. When software is counterfeit or copied, the software developer loses their revenue and the whole software industry feels the effect of piracy. All software developers spend a lot of time and money in developing software for public use. A portion of every dollar spent in purchasing original software is funneled back into research and development of new software. Software

piracy can be found in three forms software counterfeiting, which is the illegal duplication and sale of copyrighted software in a form that is designed to make it appear to be a legitimate program; Hard disk loading, whereby computer dealers load unauthorized copies of software onto the hard disks of personal computers, which acts as an incentive for the end user to buy the hardware from that particular dealer; and downloading of copyrighted software to users connected by modem to electronic bulletin boards and/or the Internet. When software is pirated the consumer pays for that cost by new software and/or upgrade version being very expensive. Federal appellate courts in the U.S. have determined that operating systems, object code and software cotained in ROMs are protected by copyright, and some lower federal courts have also determined that microcode (the instructions set on microprocessor chips), and the look and feel of computer screens is subject to copyright protection. Which leads to the problems of the

widespread development of multimedia applications that has brought out major problems in clearing copyright for small elements of text, images, video and sound.

The United States Government has been an active participant in protecting the rights of the software industry. When the Business Software Alliance (BSA) conducts a raid, Federal Marshals or local law enforcement officials participate also. An organization known as the

Software Publishers Association (SPA) is the principal trade association of the PC software industry. SPA works closely with the FBI and has also an written enforcement manual for the FBI to help them investigate pirate bulletin board systems and organizations (audits). With the help of the FBI, the result of enforcement actions resulted in recoveries from anti-piracy actions totaling $16 million since the program started in 10.

The Software Publishers Association (SPA) funds a educational program to inform individuals and corporations about software use and the law. This program provides all PC users with the tools needed to comply with copyright law and become software legal. The SPA also publishes brochures free of charge about the legal use of software for individuals and businesses. Also available to help corporations understand the copyright law is a 1-minute videotape, which is

composed of the most commonly asked questions and answers to them. The video tape is available in French and Spanish and all together over 5,000 copies of the tape had been sold. SPA has also compiled a free Self-Audit Kit with which organizations can examine their software use practices. Included in the kit, is a software inventory management program designed to help an organization track their commercial software programs that are on all hard disks. The program searches PC hard disks for more than 100 of the most common programs used in

business.

Also available is the SPA Software Management Guide which helps companies audit their current software policies, educate employees about the legal use of software, and establish procedures to purchase, register, upgrade and backup computing systems. The guide in addition also provides an Internal Controls Analysis and Questionnaire. The guide also contains all of the SPAs current anti-piracy materials. The U.S. software industry is facing the challenges of more sophisticated network environments, greater competition among software companies along with hardware manufacturers. At this moment more software than ever before is distributed on a high volume, mass marketed basis. There are many types of software out on the market and increasing every day. They range from graphical user interfaces for application programs such as mass-market spreadsheets, to more sophisticated technical software used to design integrated circuits. The use of software plays a more vital role daily in our lives such as embedded software, which is critical to equipment in locations as a doctor=s office or an automotive shop. The instrument and devices found there depend more and more on software, because software provides the flexibility to meet the many different needs to the end user. As our lives our shaped

and enhanced more by technology, there is already a greater demand that impacts the software industry.

One of the main concerns of the software industry is how to deal with the issues of Asoftware licensing. More and more customers want customized software suited for their business or personal need, and expect the software development firms to accommodate to their

wishes. The other side of this issue is that software development firms are concerned with unrealized revenue and excess costs in the form of software piracy, unauthorized use, excess discounts and lengthened sales cycles. For the customer and the software development

firm, both have high administrative costs in regards to software programs. Software licensing policies were originally a result of software developers need to protect their revenue base in the face of potential piracy. Product delivery for software is made up of a number

of different components, which are referred to as software licensing. The following factors are taken into consideration when determining a cost for a software license; physical delivery

pricing, metric discounts, license periods support and maintenance, license management Tech support, change in use bug fixes and Platform Migration Product enhancements. The most commonly found type of software license found in business is known as a, Network license.

There are four types of categories that are classified as a network license.

Concurrent use licenses authorized a specified number of users to access and execute licensed software at any time. Site licenses authorize use at a single site, but are slowly being phased out and replaced by enterprise licenses. Enterprise licenses cover all sites within a corporation because of more virtual computing environments. Node licenses are also slowly being phased out because they are mainly used in a client/server environment, since the licensed software may be used only on a specified workstation in which a user must log on to in order to access and execute the software application. Currently the trend in a network system is to use measurement software, which allows vendors to be more flexible in licensing arrangements. This management software monitors and restricts the number of users or clients who may access and execute the application software at any one time. This is significant because a user pays only for needed use and a vendor can monitor such use to protect intellectual property. A new type of

license that is emerging is known as a, currency-based license. This type of license work on the basis that it provides to the end user a specified dollar amount of software licenses. For example, licenses for different business application software, so long as the total value in use at a given time is less than dollars. Another type of license emerging is known as a platform-independent licensing, which one license permits software to be used on a variety of different computer systems within a business, instead of buying a different license for each version of the same software used by different systems. The most common type of licensing is known as Shrink-wrap, the concept behind this that the licenses terms are deemed accepted once the end user breaks a shrink-wrap seal or opens a sealed envelope containing the software. A reason for these new types of licensing emerging is that when software licensing was first introduced, the

software development firms assumed that most businesses would use the software for a 8 to 10 hour period. Yet, did not take into consideration that with the advancement of technology, more businesses would want a floating license across the world for 4 hours - thus it was not cost effective for the software development firm. A floating license is a license that is made available to anyone on a network. The licenses are not locked to particular workstations, instead they Afloat to modes on the network.

Shareware, freeware and public domain are different type of software available to the end user, and are distinguished by different rules about how programs may be distributed, copied, used and

modified. The term shareware refers to software that is distributed at a low cost, but which requires usually a payment after a certain time period and registration for full use. Copies of this software are offered on a trial basis, the end user is free to try a scaled down version of the program. If the end user wants the shareware program, included in the program is information specifying how to register the program and what fee is required. Once registered the end user will

typically receive a printed manual, an updated copy of the software (often with additional features), and the legal right to use the program in their home or business. The advantage that shareware has is that it lets the end user thoroughly test a program to see if it=s useful before making a purchase. The authors of shareware programs retain their copyright on the contents, and as other copyrighted software should not be pirated.

Freeware is also distributed at a very low cost and like shareware is found mainly on the Internet. The authors of the freeware program do not expect payment for their software. Typically, freeware programs are small utilities or incomplete programs that are released by authors for the potential benefit to others, but the drawback to this is that there is no technical support. Public domain software is generally found on the Internet and is released without any condition upon its use. It may be copied, modified and distributed as the end user wishes to do. A license manager is a system utility-like application that controls or monitors the use of another end-user application. It is generally implemented to protect intellectual property (meaning to stop illegal copying) and/or to become more competitive by offering new ways in which to evaluate, purchase and pay for software. Since the license manager controls the number of application users, there is not a need to control the number of application copies. This process lets the end user run one or more applications between machines, without violating the terms of the license agreement.

SPA has created a program that companies can use to help discover and correct problems before they result in legal actions, fines and also negative publicity. The eight point program is as

follows

1. Appoint a software manager to implement and monitor all aspects of company software policy.

. Implement a software codes of ethics for everyone to adhere to. The ethics should state that copyrighted software, except for backup and archival purposes, is a violation of the law.

. Establish a procedure for acquiring and registering software. Determine your companies software needs, evaluate software packages, and also have supervisors approve the plans. Keep the lines of communication open.

4. Establish and maintain a software log. The log should state the date of when the software was acquired, the registration of it, serial number, network version, location of where the software is in use, where the original is, licensing agreement and the location of the original disks.

5. Conduct periodic audits or on a as needed basis comparing the software log and/or other purchase records.

6. Establish a program to educate and train your employees about every aspect of software and its uses.

7. Maintain a library of software licenses and provide users with copies of the agreement.

8. Having done the above seven points, the company can benefit by having obtained software legally, receive full documentation, technical support when needed and also upgrade notices.

Patents do not cover specific systems, instead they cover particular techniques that can be used to build systems or particular features that systems can offer. Patent grants the inventor a 17 year monopoly on its use. Once a technique or feature is patented, it may not be used in a system without the permission of the patent-holder - even if it is implemented in a different way. Since a computer program usually uses several techniques and provides many features, it can

infringe many patents at once. A computer program is built out of ideal mathematical objects whose behavior is defined, not modeled approximately, by abstract rules. An example of this is Borland International, Inc. complained in the 1st Federal District Court gave Lotus Development Corp. the benefit of patent protection to Lotus 1-- menu commands and their order, but failed to require Lotus to meet the requirements of patent law, including novelty, examination

and contribution to the prior art. The Supreme Court sided with the 1st Circuit decision that one entity cannot own the user interface to programs. Meaning such as file formats, menu structures and programming languages.

Software license agreements emerged as the most popular means of protection of proprietary rights in computer software. They coexist with other forms of intellectual property rights as patent and copyright. Software license agreements serve several functions in

transactions involving the transfer of computer technology. One of the most important legal functions is the protection of the proprietary rights of the licenser in the transferred software. Other functions include controlling the revenue generated by licensed software and determining the rights and responsibilities of the parties regarding the performance of the licensed technology. Issue related to these functions include the applicability of Article of the Uniform Commercial Code, including offer and disclaimer of warranties, determining the appropriate types of licenses to utilize, such as single users/CPU licenses, Site/enterprise licenses and network/concurrent licenses. Trade secret, copyright and patent law are Astatic@ forms of protection in the sense that they may exist independently of any underlying business transactions and do not

necessarily require any transfer of intellectual property from one party to another.

Whereas, the need for a license agreement usually arises as one of the contractual forms of protection when the underlying business transaction involves the transfer of intellectual property,

such as computer software. Transactions involving the transfer of computer software are subject to both federal and state laws. Generally, state law governs contractual and trade secrets aspects of the transaction, while federal law governs aspects related to patent, copyright and antitrust issues. Each state has its own version of a doctrine of a trade secret, the common thread through these state-specific laws is that if you show that you are seriously treated information as confidential and that the confidential information helped your competitive position, you can stop others from using it if the information was improperly acquired by them, and even

collect damages from the wrongdoers.

A computer is useless without software. The two types of software typically found on a computer are operating systems software and application software. Operating system software provides interface that makes it easier to develop programs for the system by reducing the amount of code that must be written. The operating system acts as an interface between the computer hardware, application programs and the end user. Application software consists of one or more computer program that fulfill a specific function for the user like word processing, bookkeeping or financial analysis. Two legal cases recently within the last few years has brought to light the controversy regarding the copyright protection of software elements. Until 1, most of the federal courts followed the decision in Whenlan v Jaslow Dental Laboratory as a precedent of similar cases. Whenlan, a small software company wrote a accounting program for Jaslow Dental Laboratory company. Jaslow rewrote the software to run on personal computers and proceeded to sell the product. The software was identical to Whenlans in the data structures, logic, and the program structure, except for the source code. Jaslow argued that the duplicated elements were part by the of the idea - not the expression. The court in response felt that the data structures, logic, and the program structure comprised to make a single function of a computer

program, therefore copyright protection should be given to those elements also.

In 1, this protection was weakened by Computer Associates v. Altai, Inc. , when Altai a software developer was accused of copying various modules of a software package developed by Computer Associates which controlled the running of applications on IBM mainframes. The court rejected Whelan=s premise that a computer program embodies one function because programs are made up of sub-routines that contain their own idea. The court recognized this would narrow the scope of software copyright protection and found this in accordance with Congressional intent of computer programs with copyright. This resulted in why currently software copyright is not as

broad as it once was.

Bibliography

Brandel, William, Licensing stymies users,

URLhttp//www.viman.com/license/license.html#policy, Viman

Software, Inc., 14.

Business Software Alliance, Software Piracy and the Law,

URLhttp//www.bsa.org/bsa/docs/soft_pl.html, Business Software

Alliance, 15.

Software Publishers Association, SPA Anti-Piracy Backgrounder,

URLhttp//www.spa.org/piracy/pi_back.htm, Software Publishers

Association, 15.

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The last human

If you order your research paper from our custom writing service you will receive a perfectly written assignment on the last human. What we need from you is to provide us with your detailed paper instructions for our experienced writers to follow all of your specific writing requirements. Specify your order details, state the exact number of pages required and our custom writing professionals will deliver the best quality the last human paper right on time.

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the cat has gone to sleep and is now road kill. it is illegal to give cats lit cigars in mexico. it is also illegal to eat road kill in mexico.

Mohundas K Gandhi wares a nappie.

blue is a colour.

this is a crappy essay!

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it is compleate and utter crap!!!

Cannibulism is a lickibul offence in the state of Tazmania.

Im one of those people who loves vintage clothes, ever since I was 15 and could choose what I wanted to wear - and I liked the 150s when I was that age. Not the music, I was never into the music, but the clothes. I bleached my hair blonde, had 50s make-up, and people just started to say to me that I looked similar to Marilyn Monroe.

I didnt have any ambitions to be a model, or in the entertainment business at all. Id never really heard of look-alikes, so it never crossed my mind that I could do it for a living, but it just went on and on. Then someone told me about an agency and said that I should contact them. They took me on and I just started to get work from them straight away!

As someone who never wanted to perform didnt this give you terrible stage fright?

I have to speak like her - and I sing like her as well - and thats fine, but it was very hard for me because I wasnt stage-struck. The singing was a terrifying thing, but it became a necessity - I was asked to [do it]. It was really frightening - I was sick the first time I did it! (Laughs) I still get more nervous when I sing than anything else.

Mr Flibble offered Pauline a wing to cuddle when she got nervous. Thankfully she declined. Did you enjoy doing MELTDOWN?

I remember that so well. I really, really loved it. We were waxdroids. Thats what I liked about it, we werent look-alikes, we were robots of them. That was a great idea - because youre being a character, but not really. I found that really interesting. I was dressed as Marilyn Monroe, with my gold dress on, and they gave me DMs - running around in this field with my gold dress on firing a machine gun! (Laughs)

It was one of the first things I ever did. The thing with being a Marilyn Monroe impersonator, unfortunately, is that you get asked to do the same things over and over - stand on a wind machine. (Sighs) I like the idea of being dressed as her, but doing something she wouldnt do, something different.

I had to fire a machine gun, which Id never done in my life, and we had to be shown how to shoot them - making sure our hands werent where the capsules came out. Apparently our hands could have been blown off! Theres a bit when I run on and scream, and thats a scream of fear. (Laughs) I was so terrified of this gun. And I got killed!

How did you find working among all the EFFECTS?

That was absolutely terrifying. The bit where the fight was going

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The man who would become cheif

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A man named Sulay Isafu lived in Africa all his life but he wanted a better education so he moved to the United States of America to seek that education. In 18, he learned of his father's death and had to make the biggest decision of his life. He could move back to Africa and take over his father's position as chief of the Mamprusi tribe, or stay in the United States and live the life that he has started here. Sulay Isafu had to keep in mind his two daughters, his wife, and all he had earned in the U.S. He also had his family and the good of the tribe in Africa to consider.

If I were in Sulay's shoes it would be a very difficult decision to make. After looking at all the possibilities, I would do the same thing that he did, work it out so that he could manage both. This way I would make both my families happy, and keep the tribe in my family's name.

In Africa, they have many different customs and traditions. Africa isn't as fortunate as the United States. We have electricity, plumbing, running water, and telephone services. In Ghanaian villages they don't have toilets. They have a hole or a latrine (outhouse) and they don't have running water. Women have to go and fetch it, and they have electricity lines but are not yet connected. For mail and telephone they have to walk to the nearest town that has them.

The roles of women are very different from roles of women in the United States. Women in Africa must do all of the chores, cooking, cleaning, and also fetching the water and carrying it back on their head. The style of clothing is different as well. In the United States, fashion allows you to wear what ever you want to wear. In Ghana clothing and dresses come in different patterns.

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As much as I don't like to think of living life with out all the technology, running water, telephones, and electricity people in Ghana do everyday its not apart of their culture. I don't think that after living in the United States I could go and live in Ghana without all the things that we really take for granted. It makes me think that living in the United States is really a great privilege to be able to go to the bathroom, shower, and have drinking water right at your fingertips. We do not have to cook our own food every night and we are able to go out to a restaurant. As a women, I will be able to work, have a job or career, and make it on my own.

I feel that even though America is privileged with technology, Ghana still has its strong religious beliefs and unity that brings them closer together. Ghana is like a big family. They really don't have very much hatred towards one another.

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A Land Remembered

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A Land Remembered is a novel about survival and progress of Florida. This story takes place in the 1850s through the 170s. It is a story about the family of Tobias MacIvey, his wife Emma, and their Son Zech. Through out this book these characters change, and bring in more characters, such as Sol Zechs son with Glenda, Skillit a family friend of the MacIveys, and the rest of his family.

The book starts out with the end of Sols life story. He turns out to be a very rich millionaire and a very well recognized founder of Florida. Sol has a half brother, Toby Cypress, an old Indian who lived on a reserve and hadn't heard from Sol in years. Being that Sol was dying, he took a drive to see his half brother in his Rolls Royce, driven by his butler Arthur. Arthur took him to the reserve to see him brother and he also wanted to see if his brother would join him on going to their old cabin built be their father and have Arthur leave them alone to die. His brother wanted to stay on the reserve, and Sol understood so he went up to the cabin alone, and was left to die alone.

The book then brings you back into the beginning of the MacIvey's existence. It starts in Florida, 186 where the family had nothing so they lived very poorly. The family finally progresses to have a shack, which led into a barn house. Because Zech was born, it prolonged the years for Tobias to build a house due to the family being so poor. The family had gone through tough times raising their children and getting money to do so. They have been in the cattle, coon, and orange tree trades. Tobias had to once kill raccoons to trade for supplies. Besides trying to find ways to raise money, Tobias had to learn how to survive in the heart of Florida, which wasn't easy, but being a good willed man, he pulled through amazingly.

In spring, 1875, at age 17, Zech met his wife. She was a 14-year-old beauty. She had flaming red hair that flowed past her shoulders, pale green eyes, and white skin, not burned brown by prairie sun. Her name was Glenda Turner, the daughter of the towns' general store, a very respected middle class man. They married the last week of February 1880. It was a very happy day for both families. They all got together as a whole and celebrated an enormous day. Zech also had another lover. Her name was Towanda, an Indian girl from the tribe of the Seminoles. She was very happy knowing he was married because he left her what she wanted, their son, Toby.

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Before long, Towanda dies, and Zech enters his life. Toby was so used to growing up without a dad that it took some getting used to. Toby grew up to be a very well respected man, very respectful and very responsible. He married a girl named Emma and he was the one who brought wealth into the family. Toby and the rest of the family set up a big cattle drive. Despite the few casualties, they got to the point where they were herding over 000 cattle. This is what brought the wealth to Toby, but he didn't really know what to do with all his money, so he just kept it for safe keeping. Zech also got involved with the cattle drives. He was becoming a very smart man, and he had bought a certain kind of cow, a Brahman bull. He was a beast of a bull, a real mean creature. They were trying to get him out of the coral one day and the bull got loose, and charged Glenda, which in soon brought her death upon Zech. He didn't care to live any longer, but a drowning by accident caused his death soon after his wife's.

After this happened Sol had to leave the Grounds, he hired men to take care of his property, the orange grove and the cattle business. Sol was now a millionaire; he had a farm, which was very well marketed. He also had the orange groves in Kissimmee, built a house-bank in Miami, and stocked it with his personal money, which made him even wealthier. Sol came from a line of very smart successful men, and carried on this tradition to the point of its down fall, where he had helped destroy most of Floridas natural wonders. This caused his half brother Toby Cypress to hate him, and they didnt talk for years, which brings me back to the beginning of the book, where Sol stated how he founded Florida.

This story really explained to me how valuable your family name really is. I would recommend this book to anyone. It gives you an insight on Florida back in the day, and also makes you want to start looking back on your family tree and see what lies behind you, and your family name.

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Leisure and Human Development

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Personal Philosophy of Leisure

Matt Clatworthy

Everyday people across the world deal with important decisions regarding their lives. Decisions involving family, friends, work, and finance all contribute to our livelihood and wellness. One exceedingly important choice in life, which is often overlooked or taken for granted, is what we decide to do as leisure. Leisure is anything done in one's free time for fun, that lacks compulsion and is absent from any negative acts against society. Leisure is a state of mind, an attitude, and an activity that brings pleasure. It is an experience felt when one does something in that in the past had been useful for survival. Leisure is literature and is apparent in all forms of literature. Leisure is in magazine articles, greeting cards, novels, and newspapers. Literature allows the reader to fantasize, the writer to express feelings, and the mind of both to escape reality for a moment in time. Over 1.04 billion books are sold each year, proof that literature is a leisure activity of significance. Leisure is art and can be seen in the way we dress, the jewelry we wear, and the cars we drive. Humans have an innate desire to make things look nice and pleasing to us. Leisure is music and has existed since the earliest of times. Music is, perhaps, the most basic and universal activity of humankind. Leisure is multi-dimensional meaning there are many ways to experience a leisure activity. For example, in just one basketball game layer upon layer of leisure can be experienced. A player, coach, referee, a parent of a player, the crowd at the arena, the people watching the game on television, the people gambling on the game, the photographer, and the newspaper columnist covering the game all benefit from a leisure perspective but each category of people undoubtedly are taking away a different feeling of leisure. Leisure is considered relatively free from constraint. Time, age, money, laws, and location all factor into one's choices on how to spend their free time. Structural constraints, intrapersonal constraints, and interpersonal constraints all inhibit participation in human's choice in leisure. Leisure has a feeling of a positive effect meaning the individual benefits from engaging in an activity. The search for happiness is universal. Morale, happiness, psychological well being, and positive life adjustment are all indicators of the overall quality of our inner experience. Happiness is an action, moreover a good action, and leisure is part of that good action. Humans are motivated to participate in leisure by an internal force either seeking an intrinsic reward or an extrinsic reward. The actions we take for leisure purposes are what most of us want to do whether it is unconditional leisure, recuperative leisure, relational leisure, and role-determined leisure. We choose to have fun, exercise, relax, or socialize because that is what we need to survive. Leisure also has a perceived competence or ability. We expect a certain level out of ourselves or somebody else. For example, when eating at a restaurant we expect the cook to be able to cook. We expect the actors of a play to be able to perform. From the beginning of human history, leisure has been a part of everyday life. Leisure does and will forever help shape who we are as human beings.

Understanding the human development cycle we can see that leisure and how what we pursue as leisure is always changing. Throughout the life cycle leisure is considered a right or a privilege. When leisure is defined as free time, it is often viewed as a reward for work and thus a privilege for those who work. It might also be considered a gift for those with a lucky birth into privileged circumstances. As privilege, leisure is something that is distributed unequally meaning that leisure is a reward only available to those who qualify. For example, the qualifier having enough money to pay for certain forms of leisure or it can be the guilt free sensation that by the time the weekend is here, you have worked hard enough to qualify for taking some time off. As a right, leisure is supposed to be distributed equally. Most cultures believe that every human has natural or inalienable rights. These rights are described as life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. These rights believe in certain equality between everyone. Every human has a right to a good life so to speak. At the start of the life cycle is the classification of children. This class includes newborns to under the age of six. These six years are considered the most critical period of life. Children's day-to-day activity is, for the most part, intrinsically motivated but as they grow older children seem to lose much of their intrinsic motivation and become more responsive to extrinsic reward. Activities for children emphasize rhythm, body awareness, and unstructured large movement to develop gross motor skills. Leisure at this level needs to not have a long duration due to the attentions span of children. The surplus energy theory is directly correlated to children because of the amount of freedom and energy children possess. Leisure at this age is a right because it is important for their development and need not earn any of that time. The next level in the life cycle is called older, ages six to twelve. Recreation at this level needs to focus on building strength, agility, coordination, and flexibility because physical exercise continues to be a necessary development component, particularly for promoting normal bone growth. The recreation experience is influenced by social-emotional development. Recreation promotes independence, socialization, individuality, cooperative behavior, and sensitivity to perspectives of peers. Also, advancement of motor skills allows a sense of achievement and peer acceptance. At this level the surplus energy theory, instinct practice theory, self-expression theory, and stimulus arousal theory all can be involved in the leisure activities of this age group. Leisure at this age is for the most part a right. Little responsibilities and the need to develop are reasons that leisure is absolutely necessary. The next category is the youth/adolescence, ages thirteen to under eighteen. This is the transitional period of life with many social-emotional development conflicts. Recreation activities focus on opportunities for competition, lifelong skill development, teamwork, and physical exertion. This age group the surplus energy theory, instinct practice theory, self-expression theory, stimulus arousal theory, and possibly enforced leisure can describe why certain activities are chosen. Leisure can be a right or privilege in this group. A right because of the age of this group and needs leisure to develop socially and mentally. Also, a privilege because this age group is now experiencing more responsibilities and should be rewarded if successful, reprimanded if not. The next category in life is adulthood, eighteen and over. This time period encompasses 75% or more of the total life span. Recreation activities focus on benefits of participation to the individual. Leisure is more scheduled at this level because of the responsibilities of college, occupation, intimate relationships, and family. Important theories are spillover, compensation, relaxation, and stimulus arousal. Leisure becomes more and more of a privilege at this level in life. Adulthood usually brings responsibility not only for oneself but also for others. Therefore, leisure is often achieved when it benefits others as well. For example, a father of three will more likely take his family to Disney World rather than a golf resort that only he might enjoy. The last category in the life cycle is called old old. At this age individuals cannot participate at the same level due to chronic health problems. Significant amounts of people are in restricted living conditions and have few peers as a close support group. Assistance is usually needed for cultural/social contact and often they are economically disadvantaged. Enforced leisure comes into play because of the amount of time and responsibilities this group has. Leisure at this level is a right because it already has been earned through living through the other stages of human development. Old Old unfortunately is the last stage of life and often is plagued with health problems and loneliness.

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Links between GDP, Consumption, Investment and Government Expenditure

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Links between GDP, Consumption, Investment and Government Expenditure

EC010 ECONOMETRICS PROJECT

(1) Collect and analyse data sets of his/her own choosing in order to illustrate a postulated economic relationship over time.

For my project I have decided to look at the relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Household Consumption (C), Investment (I) and Government Expenditure (G). The source from which my data was derived was 'Economic Trends Aug-Dec 1 Inc Suppl UK/CES E600'. This was used as my source of data as it is compiled by the government and therefore hopefully is relatively accurate. Using just the one source should remove any error, as the values should be consistent with the market price at the time so trends should be easily identified.

Year GDP C G I NX GDP GR C GDP

155 1107 18 5 06 110 18. 11.07

156 0541 144 41 15 87 6.81% 14.4 05.41

157 1671 147 650 600 4 5.14% 14.7 16.71

158 585 1501 7 74 80 4.047% 150.1 5.85

15 877 1580 70 80 14 5.411% 158.0 8.77

160 544 1657 405 468 65 6.4% 165.7 54.4

161 671 174 454 488 856 5.476% 174. 6.71

16 870 1848 4868 504 76 4.55% 184.8 8.7

16 0 1565 417 55 117 6.46% 15.65 0.

164 06 0868 5458 67 14 8.515% 08.68 0.6

165 5574 151 5 6804 107 7.14% 1.51 55.74

166 785 1 651 761 168 6.06% .1 78.5

167 88 457 75 745 1816 5.075% 45.7 8.8

168 48 6451 7685 878 1 7.78% 64.51 4.8

16 46541 8054 8048 066 6 7.118% 80.54 465.41

170 51168 0547 07 1006 4564 .04% 05.47 511.68

171 57080 450 1046 114 5675 10.57% 4.5 570.8

17 6 8780 1171 147 577 10.77% 87.8 6.

17 755 4460 1455 157 768 1.078% 44.6 75.5

174 817 5116 1681 1814 145 11.565% 511.6 81.7

175 1047 6881 70 1856 15751 0.780% 68.81 104.7

176 14 7060 770 5516 15.551% 70.6 14.

177 144840 8504 60 801 55 14.15% 85.04 1448.4

178 1670 668 68 08 85 1.1% 6.68 1670.

17 1658 114458 086 811 777 15.001% 1144.58 165.8

180 58 166 41 48 840 14.71% 16.6 5.8

181 544 14710 55667 41 08 8.84% 1471. 5.44

18 75851 1607 60600 474 017 8.558% 160.7 758.51

18 0154 176881 654 5140 4517 8.514% 1768.81 015.4

184 08 1844 681 5868 744 6.677% 18.44 0.8

185 54 06600 77 6446 44477 8.788% 066 54.

186 8057 8848 76 68718 758 6.8% 88.48 805.7

187 4181 5114 85077 784 8806 8.6% 511.4 418.1

188 46650 845 1658 6076 0006 10.5% 84.5 4665.

18 51188 104 88 1110 06 8.86% 104. 5118.8

By simply looking at my explanatory variables it can be seen that in all cases there is a general increase over time. This is also true of the dependant variable GDP, this strongly demonstrates that there is a strong link between these variables. This is not unexpected as the macroeconomic model for GDP shows that household consumption, government spending and investment are three major components in calculating GDP. The general formula for calculating GDP is as follows

GDP = C + I + G + NX, where NX represents Net Exports. In this project I have decided to plot each of these variables against GDP in order to obtain a relationship, if any, between them. This means that I shall be using GDP as my dependant variable and C, I and G will be explanatory variables. I have added data for NX, GDP GR (GDP growth rate), C, and GDP, these will come into play later in question .

It is clear to see just by looking at the diagram for consumption against GDP that there is a strong positive relationship between the two variables, implying that it is essential in calculating GDP and has a significant impact on it if it changes.

In the above graph plotting GDP against investment there is again a strong positive relationship between the two variables suggesting it is also essential in calculating GDP, it will also have a proportional effect on the GDP if it changes.

The above diagram plotting GDP against government spending also displays a strong positive relationship where government spending is needed to calculate the GDP, again inducing a proportional change on GDP if it changes.

The above diagram plotting GDP against net exports displays a fairly weak positive relationship, however there is still a clear relationship. Again it is essential in calculating GDP and is likely to induce a proportional change in GDP if the value for NX changes.

The mathematical model I shall be using in this project is

GDP = ß1 + ßC + ßI + ß4G

.a) Conduct significance tests on the individual coefficients of your model and on the overall regression. State your chosen level of significance and give the critical values of your test statistics to which your results are compared. Interpret your estimated coefficients.

As mentioned previously I shall be using the mathematical model;

GDP = ß1 + ßC + ßI + ß4G, and shall be using linear regression models where GDP is the dependant variable and and the rest will be explanatory variables. The software used to calculate the linear regression estimates is MICROFIT using the method of Ordinary Least Squares. The following are my results

Ordinary Least Squares Estimation

Dependent variable is GDP

5 observations used for estimation from 155 to 18

Regressor Coefficient Standard Error T-Ratio [Prob]

INT 85.68 46.15 1.717 [.05]

C .868 .1056 .64 [.000]

I .4554 .168 .5876 [.015]

G 1.5785 .161 .00 [.000]

R-Squared .85 R-Bar-Squared .8

S.E. of Regression 18. F-stat. F( , 1) 6808.8[.000]

Mean of Dependent Variable 14868.5 S.D. of Dependent Variable 147467.1 Residual Sum of Squares 1.1E+08 Equation Log-likelihood -11.76

Akaike Info. Criterion -15.76 Schwarz Bayesian Criterion -18.87

DW-statistic 1.5

In my calculations H0 will represent the null hypothesis and H1 will represent the alterative hypothisis.

Significance test for Consumption expenditure

H0 ß = 0

H1 ß ¹ 0 wo tail test to a 5% significance level

Tcalc = 0.868 0 T table=1.67

0.1056

= .6076

= .64 (4d.p)

Reject H0 as tcalc 1.67

Significance test for Investment

H0 ß = 0

H1 ß ¹ 0 wo tail test to a 5% significance level

Tcalc = 0.4554 - 0 T table=1.67

0.168

= .587571

=.5876 (4d.p)

Reject H0 as tcalc 1.67

Significance test for Government Spending

H0 ß = 0

H1 ß ¹ 0 wo tail test to a 5% significance level

Tcalc = 1.5785 - 0 t table=1.67

0.161

= .74761

= .7 (4d.p)

Reject H0 as tcalc 1.67

I shall use the analysis-of-variables (ANOVA) to test the overall regression, in which the GDP is the dependant variable and the rest are explanatory variables. After obtaining the relevant information I conducted the following tests using the model

F = R / (k-1)

(1-R)/(n-k)

Significance test for overall regression.

H0 ß = ß = ß4 = 0 Ha ß ¹ ß ¹ ß4 ¹ 0 wo tail test

Ftable=8.6

F = 0.85/(4-1)

(1-0.85)/(5-4)

F = 0.8

0.00004887

= 6887.864

Reject H0 as Fcalc 8.6

The size of the coefficients alters the value of the explanatory variables. If the coefficient is positive or negative dictates whether it has a positive or negative effect on the dependant variable. Also if it is less than or greater than 1 dictates how great the impact is. In my results the coefficients for Consumption and Investment are less than 1 meaning that a 1% increase in their value would have a less than 1% increase in GDP. However Government Spending has a value greater than 1, meaning a 1% rise in its value would lead to a greater than 1% rise in the value of GDP. This runs alongside the concept of the Multiplier effect.

(b) Add a further variable to your model, compare and comment on the values of R and R you obtain compared to your results in (a)

I have decided to add Net Exports (NX) as my extra variable to my model. These are the results obtained from the regression. This changes the mathematical model to

GDP = ß1 + ßC + ßI + ß4G + ß5NX.

Ordinary Least Squares Estimation

Dependent variable is GDP

5 observations used for estimation from 155 to 18

Regressor Coefficient Standard Error T-Ratio [Prob]

INT 41.1840 6.81 1.188 [.64]

C 1.178 .0745 14.1 [.000]

I .676 .140 .167 [.04] G .7457 .174 .857 [.001]

NX .4576 .085 5.557 [.000]

R-Squared . R-Bar-Squared .

S.E. of Regression 155. F-stat. F( 4, 0) 10065.1[.000]

Mean of Dependent Variable 14868.5 S.D. of Dependent Variable 147467.1

Residual Sum of Squares 5.51E+07 Equation Log-likelihood -.774

Akaike Info. Criterion -04.774 Schwarz Bayesian Criterion -08.658

DW-statistic .4717

The R² value in the second model with the added explanatory variable of NX is higher in value to that in the first model. (0.85 and 0. respectively). This is expected as the R² value explains the variance, as more variables are introduced, more of the variance is explained and therefore a higher value is obtained. It can also be said that the error term (or stochastic term) has been reduced. The value represents the percentage of the variance that is explained in this case, the value has in creased from .85% to .% by adding the extra variable.

(c) 'Change the units' of one of your explanatory variables (e.g. divide all the data on one of your explanatory variables by 100) and repeat exercise (a). Comment. Then change your data on your dependant variable in a similar way and repeat (a). Comment, concentrating on the interpretation of the estimated coefficients in your model

I decided to change the units of my consumption variable by dividing it by 100. It will be referred to as Consumption (C). These are the results of the regression

Ordinary Least Squares Estimation

Dependent variable is GDP

5 observations used for estimation from 155 to 18

Regressor Coefficient Standard Error T-Ratio[Prob]

INT 85.68 46.15 1.717[.05]

C 8.68 10.56 .64[.000]

I .4554 .168 .5876[.015]

G 1.5785 .161 .00[.000]

R-Squared .85 R-Bar-Squared .8

S.E. of Regression 18. F-stat. F( , 1) 6808.8[.000]

Mean of Dependent Variable 14868.5 S.D. of Dependent Variable 147467.1

Residual Sum of Squares 1.1E+08 Equation Log-likelihood -11.76

Akaike Info. Criterion -15.76 Schwarz Bayesian Criterion -18.87

DW-statistic 1.5

Significance test for Consumption expenditure

H0 ß = 0

H1 ß ¹ 0 wo tail test to a 5% significance level

Tcalc = 8.68 0 T table=1.67

10.56

= .64506

= .64 (4d.p)

Reject H0 as tcalc 1.67

Significance test for Investment

H0 ß = 0

H1 ß ¹ 0 wo tail test to a 5% significance level

Tcalc = 0.4554 - 0 T table=1.67

0.168

= .587571

=.5876 (4d.p)

Reject H0 as tcalc 1.67

Significance test for Government Spending

H0 ß = 0

H1 ß ¹ 0 wo tail test to a 5% significance level

Tcalc = 1.5785 - 0 t table=1.67

0.161

= .74761

= .7 (4d.p)

Reject H0 as tcalc 1.67

Significance test for overall regression.

Model F = R / (k-1)

(1-R)/(n-k)

H0 ß = ß = ß4 = 0 Ha ß ¹ ß ¹ ß4 ¹ 0 wo tail test

F = 0.85/(4-1) Ftable=8.6

(1-0.85)/(5-4)

F = 0.8

0.00004887

= 6887.864

Reject H0 as Fcalc 8.6

Even though the figures for consumption have been altered, the results for all significance testing remain the same. Again I have rejected all of the hypotheses.

ii) I decided to change the units of my GDP variable by dividing it by 100. It will be referred to as GDP. These are the results of the regression

Ordinary Least Squares Estimation

Dependent variable is GDP

5 observations used for estimation from 155 to 18

Regressor Coefficient Standard Error T-Ratio [Prob]

INT 8.5 4.6 1.717 [.05]

C .00868 .001056 .64 [.000]

I .004554 .00168 .5876 [.015]

G .015785 .00161 .00 [.000]

R-Squared .85 R-Bar-Squared .8

S.E. of Regression 18.4 F-stat. F( , 1) 6808.8[.000]

Mean of Dependent Variable 148.7 S.D. of Dependent Variable 1474.7

Residual Sum of Squares 1118. Equation Log-likelihood -150.58

Akaike Info. Criterion -154.58 Schwarz Bayesian Criterion -157.60

DW-statistic 1.5

Significance test for Consumption expenditure

H0 ß = 0

H1 ß ¹ 0 wo tail test to a 5% significance level

Tcalc = 0.00868 0 T table=1.67

0.001056

= .6076

= .64 (4d.p)

Reject H0 as tcalc 1.67

Significance test for Investment

H0 ß = 0

H1 ß ¹ 0 wo tail test to a 5% significance level

Tcalc = 0.004554 - 0 T table=1.67

0.00168

= .587571

=.5876 (4d.p)

Reject H0 as tcalc 1.67

Significance test for Government Spending

H0 ß = 0

H1 ß ¹ 0 wo tail test to a 5% significance level

Tcalc = 0.015785 - 0 t table=1.67

0.00161

= .74761

= .7 (4d.p)

Reject H0 as tcalc 1.67

Significance test for overall regression.

Model F = R / (k-1)

(1-R)/(n-k)

H0 ß = ß = ß4 = 0 Ha ß ¹ ß ¹ ß4 ¹ 0 wo tail test

F = 0.0085/(4-1) Ftable=8.6

(1-0.0085)/(5-4)

F = 0.008

0.0155

= 0.104617

Reject H0 as Fcalc 8.6

The end result remains the same as I still reject all my hypotheses

(d) Using your model estimated in (b), look for possible multicollinearity in your results. If there is multicollinearity, indicate how you could proceed. (You do not need to do any new calculations here).

Perfect collinearity is when two variables (eg. Price and Income) have a perfect linear relationship between each other. Multicollinearity refers to more than one such relationship; multicollinearity is often used to refer to both cases however.

The first test to see if there are signs of multicollinearity are if there are high values of R² but few significant t ratios. It is evident from the data obtained in part b) that there is a high value for R² however there is no evidence in the individual t tests show that none or very few partial slope coefficients are statistically different from zero. This does not indicate multicollinearity in the data set.

The second test is to see if there is high pairwise correlations among explanatory variables, this is done by regressing individual explanatory variables against each other. In testing for any high correlations ( R² above 0.8) it emerged that there were high correlations between Consumption and Government Spending, Consumption and Investment, Consumption and Net Exports. This suggests possible collinearity between them. For instance consumption and government spending are directly related through taxation.

Another test is to do Auxiliary regressions, where each explanatory variable is regressed against all the other explanatory variables to compute the corresponding R², it can identify if there is a high R² but few of the individual coefficients are significant so you can identify the variable or variables which have perfect or near perfect linear combination of the other variables. These are my results

Regression of C on I, G, NX R² = 0.80

Regression of I on G, NX, C R² = 0.578

Regression of G on NX, C, I R² = 0.844

These high values of R² suggest some form of collinearity exists.

How I could proceed

It is evident from the tests for collinearity that it does exist in some form in my model.

In order to eliminate or reduce the effects of collinearity, a larger or completely new sample can be taken as collinearity is defined as a sample specific problem.

It may even be that another key variable has been overlooked on my part and it would be a inducing the effects of collinearity in their abcence. Another solution is to drop a variable, this causes problems though as in this model the variables are based on economic theory it will have a detrimental effect on the whole model. However this does not mean that you cannot alter the variables, in this instance we could change government spending to something like government debt/surplus, as it would remove the direct link of taxation between consumption and government spending.

Even though collinearity is evident in my model it isn't necessarily a serious problem due to the high R² value as the model will still be accurate to forcast future GDP values.

(e) Test your model in (b) for possible structural breaks halfway through your sample period. The possible breaks to be investigated are (i) a possible parallel shift in your relationship at he halfway point (change in intercept only). (ii) a possible change in the overall regression (a change in both intercept and slope coefficients)

Ordinary Least Squares Estimation

Dependent variable is GDP

5 observations used for estimation from 155 to 18

Regressor Coefficient Standard Error T-Ratio [Prob]

INT -848.11 51.878 -.8175 [.81]

C 1.105 .06074 11.664 [.000]

I 1.51 1.0788 1.54 [.]

G -.1761 1.5668 -.08788 [.1]

NX .4601 .6150 .74 [.460]

DINT 67.7100 16.0 .6860 [.70]

DC -.01865 .01174 -1.656 [.10]

DI -1.058 1.0805 -.8000 [.6]

DG .74 1.555 .680 [.5]

DNX -.01400 .6186 -.0664 [.8]

R-Squared .5 R-Bar-Squared .

S.E. of Regression 1.1 F-stat. F( , 5) 540.5[.000]

Mean of Dependent Variable 14868.5 S.D. of Dependent Variable 147467.1

Residual Sum of Squares .80E+07 Equation Log-likelihood -.880

Akaike Info. Criterion -0.880 Schwarz Bayesian Criterion -10.6577

DW-statistic 1.765

In order to test for structural breaks, the data has to be split into two sections and 'Dummy variables' have to be introduced in order to do so, these will be known as the same corresponding variable but with a 'D' preceding it. The dummy variables will split the data into two by only holding their true values in one of the sections, the rest will have values of zero. The first of which will cover all of my data from 155 to 17 inclusive. This will have the mathematical formula of

GDP = .1 + .C + .I + .4G + .5NX

= (-848.11) + 1.105 + 1.51 + (-0.1761) + (+0.1761)

The second section covers 17 to 18 inclusive, it has the following mathematical formula

GDP = (.1 + D.1) + (.C + DC) + (.I + DI) + (.4G + DG) + (.5NX + DNX).

= (-848.11 + 67.7100) + (1.105 - 0.01865) + (1.51 - 1.058) + (-0.1761 + 0.74) + (.4601 - 0.01400)

Just by looking at the data obtained you can see that there has been a structural change in the data sample where the overall regression has changed, as both the intercept and slope coefficients are different which suggests that their impact on GDP have also changed.

f) For annual data calculate the (instantaneous) annual growth rate of the dependant variable.

The data for the annual growth rate of my dependant variable (GDP) is listed in the column labelled 'GDP GR'. There is no clear, strong correlation between the results as they change constantly although from 167 to 180 there was a general rise in the GDP growth rate, with a high in 175 with a growth rate of 0.780%. The growth rate was fairly consistent towards the end of my data selection from the period of 181 to to 18. The lowest rate of growth was in 158 with a growth rate of 4.047%.

These are the average growth rates of the first second and third sections of the data

1st 156-167 6.01%

nd 168-178 11.54%

rd 17-18 .6%

This suggests there was an increase in growth over the period sampled, with a slight slowdown in the last period.

g) Test for the presence of serially correlated errors in your model. If there is evidence of such correlation, indicate how you could proceed.

The presence of serially correlated errors can be detected through a number of tests. I shall be using a test known as the Durbin-Watson Test.

The Durbin Watson Test

The Durbin-Watson Test is so commonly used and is based on the Ordinary Least Squares residual, so is often seen alongside other summary statistics such as R², t and F ratios. The Durbin Watson Test uses the following formula

d =

There are some assumptions for the d statistic to work, these are

· The regression model includes an intercept term as does not work for models where the line goes through the origin.

· The X variables are nonstochastic. This means that the values are fixed in repeated sampling.

· The disturbances Ut are generated by the Makov first-order autoregressive scheme.

· The regressiondoes not contain lagged values of the dependant variable as one of the explanatory variables. These models are known as autoregressive models.

From my model used in .b) with four explanatory variables the Durbin-Watson d Statistic has a value of 0.4717, by using the tables, the upper and lower limits can be found. For my model the upper limit is 1.76 and the lower limit is 1. at 5% significance level.

H0 No positive autocorrelation H0 No negative autocorrelation

I have to reject the null hypothesis that there is no positive autocorrelation as 00.47171.. This says that there is a positive autocorrelation in my model.

By my model having positive autocorrelation occurring means that the stochastic shock term is increasing in my model. This is not wanted in my model as the consequences can be very serious. A suitable remedy for this would be to introduce either use generalized least squares (GLS) or the 'Prais-Winstein Transformation' method of transformation.

h) On the basis of your results, and on any other tests that you care to undertake, indicate whether you feel your model could be improved, and if so, how. Attempt to improve your model, including handling and serial correlation problems if appropriate. Explain why you think your results do or do not show a model improvement.

I feel that my model has proved itself to be quite accurate in explaining the GDP as the R² value obtained was 0. which means that .% of the variance is explained by the explanatory variables. My model could undergo improvement as shown in part g), my model has experienced autocorrelation meaning that the stochastic shock to my model is ever increasing. Also there was some evidence of multicollinearity, which could be eliminated with a larger sample size.

To eliminate the effects of autocorrelation the autocorrelation parameter must be found, to do this I shall use the Durbin-Watson d statistic to estimate it value

The relationship between d and p

This formula can be rearranged with p as the subject to form

Previously the value for d has been calculated

This value could then be used in the generalised difference equation to eliminate the effects of autocorrelation which would improve my models accuracy.

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